Since the Industrial Revolution, the textile industry, as a representative of industrial development, has seen its related industrial chain follow a continuous flow from Europe, to the United States, to Japan and South Korea, then to the Four Asian Tigers, later to China, and currently to Southeast Asia.
Behind the transfer of the industrial chain, there is policy promotion, but more importantly, it is influenced by economic laws, labor costs and other factors. The latecomer countries gradually began to develop other industries through the first pot of golden hair accumulated in the textile industry.
However, various recent moves by the United States seem to indicate that they intend to rebuild the textile industrial chain that has been largely phased out by them.
97.5% of the clothing in the United States needs to be imported
According to CCTV Finance, the tariff list released by Trump on April 2nd stated that the United States will impose more than 30% of "equivalent tariffs" on multiple countries including Cambodia, Vietnam, and Thailand. Vietnam's export volume accounts for nearly 90% of its total economic output. The United States is its largest export market. In 2024, Vietnam's trade surplus with the United States reached 123.5 billion US dollars.
Especially in the clothing industry, according to statistics, currently only 2.5% of the clothing and 1% of the footwear in the United States are domestically manufactured. Vietnam and other Asian countries are the main sources of imports for the United States' clothing, footwear and hats. Apart from Vietnam, the garment and textile industries in countries such as Cambodia and Thailand have also been hard to escape. According to relevant data statistics, it is estimated that the clothing export volume of Cambodia and Thailand will decline by 30% and 25% respectively after the implementation of tariffs.
Can the United States really rebuild the textile industry chain?
So the question arises: Can the United States really rebuild the textile industry chain in the United States?
The first factor is labor cost. As a traditional labor-intensive industry, labor accounts for the majority of the textile industry. The labor cost in the United States has increased several times compared to that in Vietnam. Coupled with the significant inflation in the past two years, to recruit workers, at the very least, they need to be able to support themselves while doing these jobs. But with such high wages, how much does a piece of clothing need to be sold for for a company to make a profit?
The second aspect is the quality of workers. As a developed country, the illiteracy rate in the United States even exceeds 20%. Even though the textile and garment industry does not have such high requirements for workers, it still needs basic training and workers to be hardworking and enduring. This is also a major issue.
The third factor is time. Even for the most fundamental textile industry chain, the time it takes to rebuild is measured in years. For large supermarkets like Walmart, the inventory period is generally 30 to 40 days. According to the current tariffs in the United States, no country in the world can supply them on a large scale. As is known to all, goods do not grow automatically on the shelves. After one or two months, when the goods are sold out, how can people maintain a normal life?
The fourth factor is interest rates. Under the previous series of interest rate hikes in the United States, the risk-free interest rate of US Treasury bonds has approached 5%. This means that if a factory's profit margin is below 5%, it has no room for survival at all. If it wants to operate normally, the profit margin needs to be even higher. In this regard, the textile industry has the most say. How can the current textile industry have such high profits?
Therefore, even if the United States really has the intention to rebuild the textile industry chain, the objective conditions do not permit it. It is more likely to end up in a mess.
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